Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 44.2%

OTT: 55.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.91

OTT: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	FLA	OTT
Season SV%	0.899	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	26	23	3	88.5%	2.85	2	-0.15
OTT	Linus Ullmark	29	23	6	79.3%	4.58	2	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs OTT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	29	1	2.37
1	OTT	11	0	0.38
2	FLA	14	0	1.38
2	OTT	12	1	0.71
3	FLA	9	1	0.83
3	OTT	22	1	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown