New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 47.1%

NJD: 52.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.04

NJD: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	NYR	NJD
Season SV%	0.910	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	22	1	95.7%	3.18	2	2.18
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	22	18	4	81.8%	3.58	3	-0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYR at home vs NJD: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	NYR 4 - 1 NJD	NYR	NJD
2026-03-18	NYR 3 - 6 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-07	NJD 6 - 3 NYR	NJD	NJD
2025-04-05	NJD 4 - 0 NYR	NJD	NJD
2025-01-09	NYR 3 - 2 NJD	NYR	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	2	1.41
1	NJD	12	0	0.49
2	NYR	19	1	1.38
2	NJD	20	1	1.40
3	NYR	10	0	0.80
3	NJD	15	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown