Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 56.1%

DET: 43.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.38

DET: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	PIT	DET
Season SV%	0.888	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	23	22	1	95.7%	2.83	1	1.83
DET	John Gibson	31	26	5	83.9%	4.39	2	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.56
1	DET	10	0	0.55
2	PIT	18	0	1.35
2	DET	16	1	1.32
3	PIT	16	0	1.48
3	DET	16	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown