Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 50.8%

PHI: 49.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.37

PHI: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	WSH	PHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	20	4	83.3%	3.80	6	-0.20
PHI	Dan Vladar	18	12	6	66.7%	2.71	3	-3.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	1	0.62
1	PHI	17	1	0.91
2	WSH	12	0	0.90
2	PHI	11	3	1.74
3	WSH	7	2	1.18
3	PHI	15	2	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown