Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

TBL: 59.5%

PIT: 40.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

PIT: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	2	1.21
1	PIT	14	0	0.69
2	TBL	15	1	1.54
2	PIT	13	1	0.88
3	TBL	17	2	2.05
3	PIT	9	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0