Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 37.1%

MTL: 62.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.97

MTL: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	NYR	MTL
Season SV%	0.910	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	25	22	3	88.0%	3.51	4	0.51
MTL	Jacob Fowler	24	22	2	91.7%	2.70	0	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • NYR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.96
1	MTL	11	0	0.45
2	NYR	11	0	0.66
2	MTL	16	0	0.94
3	NYR	18	0	1.09
3	MTL	11	4	2.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown