Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 3 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 72.7%

CGY: 27.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.71

CGY: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	VGK	CGY
Season SV%	0.883	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	22	19	3	86.4%	1.98	1	-1.02
CGY	Dustin Wolf	34	28	6	82.4%	3.93	4	-2.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VGK at home vs CGY: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	1	1.41
1	CGY	11	0	0.74
2	VGK	16	1	1.31
2	CGY	11	1	0.84
3	VGK	13	2	1.21
3	CGY	6	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown