Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-04-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 53.9%

TOR: 46.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.40

TOR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	SJS	TOR
Season SV%	0.895	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	20	19	1	95.0%	2.40	0	1.40
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	25	21	4	84.0%	3.03	1	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	17	0	0.68
1	TOR	11	0	0.54
2	SJS	14	0	0.75
2	TOR	9	0	0.64
3	SJS	10	1	1.60
3	TOR	18	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown