Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 53.7%

PHI: 46.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.09

PHI: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	4	0	0.12
1	PHI	18	3	1.84
2	NYI	20	1	1.47
2	PHI	9	0	0.52
3	NYI	13	0	0.66
3	PHI	9	4	2.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3