Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 55.5%

PHI: 44.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.29

PHI: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	NYI	PHI
Season SV%	0.910	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	17	4	81.0%	4.81	7	0.81
PHI	Dan Vladar	22	21	1	95.5%	2.24	1	1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	4	0	0.12
1	PHI	18	3	1.84
2	NYI	20	1	1.47
2	PHI	9	0	0.52
3	NYI	13	0	0.66
3	PHI	9	4	2.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown