Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

DAL: 46.1%

COL: 53.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.96

COL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	0	0.66
1	COL	14	0	0.83
2	DAL	7	0	0.40
2	COL	11	0	0.24
3	DAL	13	2	1.02
3	COL	14	3	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3