Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 73.6%

BOS: 26.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.07

BOS: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	TBL	BOS
Season SV%	0.913	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	21	1	95.5%	2.48	1	1.48
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	20	3	87.0%	3.08	4	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.57
1	BOS	18	0	0.83
2	TBL	9	1	0.78
2	BOS	22	1	1.31
3	TBL	15	2	1.74
3	BOS	6	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown