Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 9 - 4 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 59.5%

FLA: 40.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.14

FLA: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	PIT	FLA
Season SV%	0.886	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	23	19	4	82.6%	1.87	2	-2.13
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	22	9	71.0%	3.61	4	-5.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	1	0.97
1	FLA	8	1	0.68
2	PIT	24	2	2.04
2	FLA	9	0	0.47
3	PIT	7	1	0.59
3	FLA	12	1	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown