Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 61.8%

MTL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.50

MTL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	NJD	MTL
Season SV%	0.912	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	34	28	6	82.4%	5.73	3	-0.27
MTL	Jakub Dobes	42	37	5	88.1%	5.68	4	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • NJD at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	19	2	1.33
1	MTL	17	0	1.26
2	NJD	11	0	1.14
2	MTL	13	0	1.14
3	NJD	15	0	0.84
3	MTL	16	0	1.08
4	NJD	4	0	0.39
4	MTL	4	0	0.25
5	NJD	5	2	1.98
5	MTL	5	3	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9