Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-04-04 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 50.7%
BUF: 49.3%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.10
BUF: 3.48
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 77%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | WSH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.949 | 0.400 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs BUF: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | WSH 6 - 2 BUF | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-03-12 | BUF 1 - 2 WSH | WSH | BUF |
| 2025-11-01 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | WSH |
| 2025-03-30 | WSH 5 - 8 BUF | BUF | WSH |
| 2025-01-06 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 03:35 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 05:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 06:30 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 12:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 06:06 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 06:26 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 08:55 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.1 - 3.5
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