Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 49.2%

BUF: 50.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.19

BUF: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	WSH	BUF
Season SV%	0.913	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	39	37	2	94.9%	3.68	2	1.68
BUF	Alex Lyon	28	22	6	78.6%	2.85	2	-3.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs BUF: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	1.34
1	BUF	15	1	1.14
2	WSH	13	0	0.37
2	BUF	20	1	1.94
3	WSH	13	2	1.15
3	BUF	13	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown