New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 78.7%

NYI: 21.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.74

NYI: 2.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	CAR	NYI
Season SV%	0.901	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	16	13	3	81.2%	2.02	0	-0.98
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	40	36	4	90.0%	4.50	4	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • CAR at home vs NYI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	NYI 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-04	CAR 4 - 3 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-10-30	CAR 6 - 2 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-03-30	CAR 6 - 4 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-01-25	NYI 3 - 2 CAR	NYI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	1	1.26
1	NYI	5	0	0.22
2	CAR	24	1	1.88
2	NYI	4	0	0.45
3	CAR	17	2	1.36
3	NYI	16	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown