Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

EDM: 47.4%

VGK: 52.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.62

VGK: 3.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	21	2	2.09
1	VGK	14	1	0.60
2	EDM	11	0	0.65
2	VGK	15	2	1.33
3	EDM	17	0	0.59
3	VGK	14	2	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.6 - 3.9