Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 56.3%

CGY: 43.7%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.50

CGY: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	ANA	CGY
Season SV%	0.884	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Ville Husso	20	15	5	75.0%	4.27	7	-0.73
CGY	Devin Cooley	39	36	3	92.3%	3.92	1	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	23	1	1.58
1	CGY	12	1	0.94
2	ANA	20	0	1.34
2	CGY	12	3	1.48
3	ANA	21	0	1.01
3	CGY	11	3	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown