Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 42.3%

CAR: 57.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.99

CAR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	OTT	CAR
Season SV%	0.881	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	14	12	2	85.7%	1.32	2	-0.68
CAR	Frederik Andersen	17	15	2	88.2%	2.49	3	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 77% • OTT at home vs CAR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	2	2.15
1	CAR	17	2	1.20
2	OTT	4	1	0.33
2	CAR	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown