Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 8 - 1 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 55.6%

WSH: 44.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.22

WSH: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	NYR	WSH
Season SV%	0.910	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	21	20	1	95.2%	1.87	0	0.87
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	33	25	8	75.8%	4.52	5	-3.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • NYR at home vs WSH: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-09	WSH 3 - 1 NYR	WSH	WSH
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	1	0.79
1	WSH	10	0	0.84
2	NYR	22	3	2.28
2	WSH	9	0	0.46
3	NYR	17	1	1.44
3	WSH	13	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown