Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-04-06 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:00 PM EDT
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 59.2%
TBL: 40.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.40
TBL: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • BUF at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4 - 3 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7 - 4 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-05 | BUF 3 - 2 TBL | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-06 | TBL 6 - 5 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | TBL |
🔮 Game Preview
This game is scheduled for 2026-04-06 at 7:00 PM EDT.
Check back after the game for in-game win probability analysis and post-game results.