Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 47.2%

TBL: 52.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.13

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	BUF
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	05:42	BUF	Goal
1	11:45	BUF	Goal
1	14:04	BUF	Goal
2	03:56	BUF	Goal
2	07:38	BUF	Goal
3	18:06	BUF	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2