Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Florida Panthers (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 48.3%

FLA: 51.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.97

FLA: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	MTL	FLA
Season SV%	0.889	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	35	32	3	91.4%	4.29	3	1.29
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	34	29	5	85.3%	6.08	8	1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • MTL at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	1	0.83
1	FLA	15	1	1.36
2	MTL	13	2	1.27
2	FLA	17	1	1.32
3	MTL	17	2	1.69
3	FLA	9	1	0.87
4	MTL	4	1	0.50
4	FLA	5	0	0.57
5	MTL	2	2	1.78
5	FLA	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2