Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Florida Panthers (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.3%

FLA: 51.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.10

FLA: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs FLA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	1	0.83
1	FLA	15	1	1.36
2	MTL	13	2	1.27
2	FLA	17	1	1.32
3	MTL	17	2	1.69
3	FLA	9	1	0.87
4	MTL	4	1	0.50
4	FLA	5	0	0.57
5	MTL	2	2	1.78
5	FLA	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1