Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

OTT: 64.0%

TBL: 36.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.35

TBL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	1.10
1	TBL	13	0	0.42
2	OTT	17	0	1.04
2	TBL	9	0	0.39
3	OTT	20	4	3.02
3	TBL	22	2	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0