Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 65.0%

TBL: 35.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.44

TBL: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	OTT	TBL
Season SV%	0.881	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	30	28	2	93.3%	2.20	2	0.20
TBL	Jonas Johansson	32	26	6	81.2%	5.16	4	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	1.10
1	TBL	13	0	0.42
2	OTT	17	0	1.04
2	TBL	9	0	0.39
3	OTT	20	4	3.02
3	TBL	22	2	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown