Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 57.4%

PHI: 42.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.33

PHI: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	NJD	PHI
Season SV%	0.884	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	19	14	5	73.7%	2.05	1	-2.95
PHI	Dan Vladar	24	23	1	95.8%	2.71	0	1.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NJD at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	15	0	0.97
1	PHI	8	0	0.71
2	NJD	16	0	1.17
2	PHI	12	0	0.62
3	NJD	15	0	0.57
3	PHI	4	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown