Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 66.8%

CGY: 33.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.72

CGY: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	DAL	CGY
Season SV%	0.907	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	20	17	3	85.0%	2.05	0	-0.95
CGY	Devin Cooley	25	21	4	84.0%	3.70	5	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	1	0.70
1	CGY	6	0	0.29
2	DAL	9	1	0.90
2	CGY	13	0	0.99
3	DAL	10	1	0.71
3	CGY	12	0	0.78
4	DAL	11	2	1.39
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6