Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 64.0%

CGY: 36.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.02

CGY: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	1	0.70
1	CGY	6	0	0.29
2	DAL	9	1	0.90
2	CGY	13	0	0.99
3	DAL	10	1	0.71
3	CGY	12	0	0.78
4	DAL	11	2	1.39
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 4.0 - 2.9