Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-04-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 48.4%

WSH: 51.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.17

WSH: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	TOR	WSH
Season SV%	0.884	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	20	16	4	80.0%	3.55	2	-0.45
WSH	Logan Thompson	22	22	0	100.0%	2.10	0	2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.53
1	WSH	12	0	1.00
2	TOR	16	0	1.13
2	WSH	16	0	1.18
3	TOR	11	0	0.44
3	WSH	7	2	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown