Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-04-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 43.4%

WSH: 56.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.96

WSH: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.53
1	WSH	12	0	1.00
2	TOR	16	0	1.13
2	WSH	16	0	1.18
3	TOR	11	0	0.44
3	WSH	7	2	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1