Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-04-08 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 52.9%

EDM: 47.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.86

EDM: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 57%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	SJS	EDM
Season SV%	0.895	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	26	21	5	80.8%	2.56	1	-2.44
EDM	Connor Ingram	14	12	2	85.7%	1.92	2	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs EDM: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	SJS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	SJS
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	1	0.91
1	EDM	12	1	0.90
2	SJS	10	1	0.76
2	EDM	19	0	1.43
3	SJS	10	0	0.25
3	EDM	10	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown