Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 36.6%

TBL: 63.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.64

TBL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	MTL	TBL
Season SV%	0.889	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	18	17	1	94.4%	2.05	0	1.05
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	90.5%	4.17	5	2.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	2	1.75
1	TBL	4	0	0.48
2	MTL	12	0	0.87
2	TBL	8	0	0.63
3	MTL	10	3	1.54
3	TBL	15	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown