Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 43.4%

TBL: 56.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.34

TBL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	2	1.75
1	TBL	4	0	0.48
2	MTL	12	0	0.87
2	TBL	8	0	0.63
3	MTL	10	3	1.54
3	TBL	15	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4