Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 66.8%

FLA: 33.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.87

FLA: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	OTT	FLA
Season SV%	0.881	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	22	1	95.7%	1.79	0	0.79
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	22	5	81.5%	4.17	4	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs FLA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.46
1	FLA	10	0	0.28
2	OTT	8	1	0.64
2	FLA	14	0	0.79
3	OTT	20	3	2.06
3	FLA	13	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown