Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 43.1%

PHI: 56.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.27

PHI: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	5	1	0.60
1	PHI	19	0	1.07
2	DET	13	0	0.73
2	PHI	9	1	0.71
3	DET	8	0	0.66
3	PHI	12	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4