Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 71.4%

TOR: 28.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.85

TOR: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TOR

Artur Akhtyamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	NYI	TOR
Season SV%	0.910	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	16	13	3	81.2%	2.25	1	-0.75
TOR	Artur Akhtyamov	44	39	5	88.6%	6.62	5	1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NYI at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	TOR 2 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	34	2	3.15
1	TOR	9	0	0.29
2	NYI	16	1	1.62
2	TOR	11	0	0.93
3	NYI	14	2	1.86
3	TOR	26	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown