Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYI: 74.1%

TOR: 25.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 4.50

TOR: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	34	2	3.15
1	TOR	9	0	0.29
2	NYI	16	1	1.62
2	TOR	11	0	0.93
3	NYI	14	2	1.86
3	TOR	26	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.5 - 2.5