Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 53.1%

WPG: 46.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.99

WPG: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	STL	WPG
Season SV%	0.869	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	34	31	3	91.2%	2.88	3	-0.12
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	20	2	90.9%	2.49	0	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	15	0	1.44
1	WPG	22	1	1.19
2	STL	9	0	0.48
2	WPG	14	1	1.17
3	STL	9	0	0.58
3	WPG	8	1	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown