Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 57.3%

MIN: 42.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.45

MIN: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	DAL	MIN
Season SV%	0.907	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	27	4	87.1%	2.91	3	-1.09
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	20	15	5	75.0%	2.45	3	-2.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs MIN: 9-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	1	0.57
1	MIN	11	0	0.73
2	DAL	14	2	1.40
2	MIN	20	2	1.42
3	DAL	9	0	0.48
3	MIN	13	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown