Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 39.7%

VGK: 60.3%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.73

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	SEA	VGK
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	40	36	4	90.0%	4.88	4	0.88
VGK	Adin Hill	38	33	5	86.8%	4.94	3	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • SEA at home vs VGK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK
2025-04-10	VGK 2 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	16	1	0.97
1	VGK	14	0	0.93
2	SEA	18	0	0.97
2	VGK	18	2	1.51
3	SEA	15	0	0.68
3	VGK	13	1	0.99
4	SEA	4	0	0.34
4	VGK	5	0	0.30
5	SEA	5	2	1.99
5	VGK	5	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2