Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BOS: 47.1%

TBL: 52.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.72

TBL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	1	0.84
1	TBL	7	1	0.95
2	BOS	23	0	0.94
2	TBL	9	0	0.56
3	BOS	9	0	0.53
3	TBL	13	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1