Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2026-04-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 58.4%
WSH: 41.6%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.38
WSH: 2.70
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | PIT | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.848 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs WSH: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | WSH 3 - 0 PIT | WSH | PIT |
| 2026-04-11 | PIT 3 - 6 WSH | WSH | PIT |
| 2025-11-06 | PIT 5 - 3 WSH | PIT | WSH |
| 2025-04-17 | PIT 5 - 2 WSH | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-02-22 | PIT 3 - 8 WSH | WSH | PIT |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.4 - 2.7
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