Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 59.6%

WSH: 40.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.49

WSH: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 55%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	PIT	WSH
Season SV%	0.886	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	32	26	6	81.2%	4.15	5	-1.85
WSH	Logan Thompson	11	8	3	72.7%	2.28	3	-0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	0	0.27
1	WSH	15	0	0.57
2	PIT	12	2	1.20
2	WSH	18	4	2.28
3	PIT	8	1	0.81
3	WSH	15	1	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown