New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 50.5%

NJD: 49.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.27

NJD: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	DET	NJD
Season SV%	0.893	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	33	28	5	84.8%	4.56	4	-0.44
NJD	Jake Allen	28	25	3	89.3%	3.24	4	0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs NJD: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	NJD
2024-11-29	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	20	2	1.67
1	NJD	11	1	1.14
2	DET	12	1	0.77
2	NJD	24	1	1.52
3	DET	13	1	0.80
3	NJD	14	2	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown