Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 58.5%

CBJ: 41.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.20

CBJ: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	MTL	CBJ
Season SV%	0.889	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	33	28	5	84.8%	4.93	7	-0.07
CBJ	Jet Greaves	22	20	2	90.9%	2.61	1	0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs CBJ: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	MTL
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	MTL
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.28
1	CBJ	19	4	1.75
2	MTL	7	0	0.53
2	CBJ	18	2	1.73
3	MTL	14	0	0.80
3	CBJ	12	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown