Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 7 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 53.1%

PHI: 46.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.95

PHI: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	WPG	PHI
Season SV%	0.907	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	23	16	7	69.6%	2.17	1	-4.83
PHI	Dan Vladar	28	27	1	96.4%	2.73	2	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs PHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	1	1.10
1	PHI	20	0	0.95
2	WPG	15	0	0.84
2	PHI	7	0	0.35
3	WPG	15	1	0.80
3	PHI	9	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown