Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 57.1%

PIT: 42.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.10

PIT: 1.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	WSH	PIT
Season SV%	0.913	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	24	0	100.0%	3.26	0	3.26
PIT	Stuart Skinner	27	24	3	88.9%	3.43	2	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs PIT: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	0.82
1	PIT	20	0	1.35
2	WSH	19	0	1.19
2	PIT	18	0	1.37
3	WSH	9	1	1.42
3	PIT	11	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown