Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 47.8%

PIT: 52.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.80

PIT: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	WSH	PIT
Season SV%	0.913	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	23	23	0	100.0%	2.97	0	2.97
PIT	Stuart Skinner	22	21	1	95.5%	2.14	1	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	0.82
1	PIT	20	0	1.35
2	WSH	19	0	1.19
2	PIT	18	0	1.37
3	WSH	3	0	0.13
3	PIT	5	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown