Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 61.6%

MTL: 38.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.26

MTL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	0	0.79
1	MTL	16	0	1.23
2	NYI	9	1	0.85
2	MTL	13	1	1.29
3	NYI	27	1	2.26
3	MTL	7	2	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1