Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 74.3%

VAN: 25.7%

Expected Goals

ANA: 4.18

VAN: 2.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	ANA	VAN
Season SV%	0.888	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	26	22	4	84.6%	2.56	3	-1.44
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	27	24	3	88.9%	3.66	2	0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • ANA at home vs VAN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	ANA 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	ANA
2026-03-24	VAN 3 - 5 ANA	ANA	VAN
2026-01-29	VAN 2 - 0 ANA	VAN	ANA
2025-11-26	ANA 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	ANA
2025-04-05	VAN 6 - 2 ANA	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	13	2	1.69
1	VAN	11	1	0.84
2	ANA	13	0	1.01
2	VAN	9	0	0.39
3	ANA	12	0	0.81
3	VAN	7	1	0.41
4	ANA	2	0	0.15
4	VAN	7	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 4.2 - 2.3