Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.4%

DET: 38.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.49

DET: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	0.89
1	DET	21	2	1.19
2	TBL	15	2	1.40
2	DET	8	1	0.77
3	TBL	6	0	0.31
3	DET	14	0	0.89
4	TBL	1	1	0.34
4	DET	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8