Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 64.1%

DET: 35.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.94

DET: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	TBL	DET
Season SV%	0.913	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	27	3	90.0%	3.04	3	0.04
DET	Cam Talbot	22	18	4	81.8%	2.94	4	-1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	0.89
1	DET	21	2	1.19
2	TBL	15	2	1.40
2	DET	8	1	0.77
3	TBL	6	0	0.31
3	DET	14	0	0.89
4	TBL	1	1	0.34
4	DET	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.9 - 2.7