Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

TOR: 40.5%

DAL: 59.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.01

DAL: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TOR at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.89
1	DAL	10	0	0.41
2	TOR	14	1	0.81
2	DAL	20	2	1.88
3	TOR	13	0	0.75
3	DAL	17	2	2.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6