Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 39.8%

DAL: 60.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.11

DAL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Artur Akhtyamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	TOR	DAL
Season SV%	0.000	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Artur Akhtyamov	33	27	6	81.8%	4.66	4	-1.34
DAL	Casey DeSmith	27	22	5	81.5%	2.45	2	-2.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.89
1	DAL	10	0	0.41
2	TOR	14	1	0.81
2	DAL	20	2	1.88
3	TOR	13	0	0.75
3	DAL	17	2	2.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown