Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 35.3%

BUF: 64.7%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.76

BUF: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	CHI	BUF
Season SV%	0.909	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	26	21	5	80.8%	3.33	1	-1.67
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	16	15	1	93.8%	1.79	0	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CHI at home vs BUF: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	CHI 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-21	BUF 9 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-27	BUF 6 - 2 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-10-19	CHI 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-18	BUF 3 - 0 CHI	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	8	0	0.35
1	BUF	8	1	1.26
2	CHI	10	0	0.65
2	BUF	22	0	1.23
3	CHI	11	0	0.79
3	BUF	11	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown