Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 40.4%

COL: 59.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.02

COL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	EDM	COL
Season SV%	0.883	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	34	30	4	88.2%	7.58	8	3.58
COL	Scott Wedgewood	34	31	3	91.2%	4.20	2	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • EDM at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	0	0.66
1	COL	22	1	1.71
2	EDM	16	0	0.87
2	COL	14	0	1.23
3	EDM	15	0	0.84
3	COL	13	2	0.80
4	EDM	0	0	0.00
4	COL	8	2	1.06
5	EDM	3	2	1.82
5	COL	3	3	2.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4