Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-04-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 33.4%

COL: 66.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.34

COL: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	CGY	COL
Season SV%	0.901	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	39	36	3	92.3%	4.59	3	1.59
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	30	1	96.8%	2.82	3	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • CGY at home vs COL: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	CGY 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	1	0.97
1	COL	13	0	0.57
2	CGY	13	1	0.78
2	COL	24	2	1.96
3	CGY	17	1	1.07
3	COL	17	1	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown