Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-04-14 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 7 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 40.7%

PIT: 59.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.82

PIT: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	STL	PIT
Season SV%	0.869	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	23	18	5	78.3%	2.51	2	-2.49
PIT	Stuart Skinner	31	24	7	77.4%	5.11	4	-1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	PIT
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	0	1.06
1	PIT	13	1	1.05
2	STL	20	3	2.03
2	PIT	10	1	0.76
3	STL	14	1	2.01
3	PIT	12	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown