Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-04-14 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 7 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 47.9%

PIT: 52.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.47

PIT: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	STL
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	0	1.06
1	PIT	13	1	1.05
2	STL	20	3	2.03
2	PIT	10	1	0.76
3	STL	14	1	2.01
3	PIT	12	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 7 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1