Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 50.8%

DAL: 49.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.33

DAL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	BUF	DAL
Season SV%	0.895	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	31	25	6	80.6%	4.15	4	-1.85
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	22	5	81.5%	4.68	7	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	2	1.19
1	DAL	7	1	0.33
2	BUF	12	1	0.90
2	DAL	15	0	0.61
3	BUF	9	1	0.43
3	DAL	15	0	0.90
4	BUF	5	1	0.64
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
5	BUF	4	2	1.52
5	DAL	4	3	2.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0