Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 52.9%

DAL: 47.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.18

DAL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	2	1.19
1	DAL	7	1	0.33
2	BUF	12	1	0.90
2	DAL	15	0	0.61
3	BUF	9	1	0.43
3	DAL	15	0	0.90
4	BUF	5	1	0.64
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
5	BUF	4	2	1.52
5	DAL	4	3	2.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0