New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 58.8%

NYR: 41.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.47

NYR: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 38%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.5