New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 61.9%

NYR: 38.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.47

NYR: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

B. Halverson

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	TBL	NYR
Season SV%	—	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Halverson	21	17	4	81.0%	2.99	4	-1.01
NYR	Dylan Garand	31	29	2	93.5%	4.60	5	2.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	3	1.38
1	NYR	10	0	0.68
2	TBL	16	2	1.77
2	NYR	13	1	0.93
3	TBL	21	0	1.45
3	NYR	12	3	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown