Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

OTT: 79.9%

TOR: 20.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.01

TOR: 1.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	24	2	1.89
1	TOR	9	0	0.20
2	OTT	17	0	0.94
2	TOR	11	0	0.61
3	OTT	16	2	2.19
3	TOR	13	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.0 - 1.6